No, the title of this post is NOT the price you can pay for a house in Los Angeles these days, but the fact does remain that there are some sweltering “deals” to be had for those ready to get their feet back into the real estate market.
RE4REAL is back!!! Hope everyone had a lovely time during the holidays and that an eventful new year is underway…now, let’s discuss what is happening in 2009 so far:
-Since 1/1/09, in the Greater Los Angeles area, 313 single family residence listings in the $500,000-$1,000,000 range have hit the market. In that same price range, 104 properties have sold, and 143 are in escrow. Of the properties that are in escrow, 8 were listed in the new year…the remainder were all listed in 2008. All of the properties that have “sold” thus far - meaning they have closed escrow in 2009, were listed in 2008 – it is very unlikely that a property will close escrow in less than 2 weeks, but it is not unheard of.
-In the $250,000-$499,000 price range, 199 single family residences have sold in 2009 – of these properties,
In this category, 295 homes are in escrow as we speak, er write, or read…well you get what I mean! Eight of those properties in escrow were listed in 2009, the rest in 2008 – and believe it or not, a few stragglers from 2007! Yes, we’ve got inventory that’s been sitting on the market for quite some time, but some of them are finally going to sell…that’s the most interesting part, finding out why those properties have taken so long to sell and what has changed in the market, or changed with the sellers, to substantiate the sale.
There is a variety of factors that goes into whether or not a property will sell, regardless of the economic temperature. The properties that have been sitting for a year or longer are obviously highly overpriced – even if there is something significantly “wrong” with the property, it could still be saleable at a “reasonable” price. That is the difficult part – coming to terms with what is “reasonable,” especially given these volatile economic times.
-64 houses $1,ooo,ooo and above are in escrow, and in this price range 45 properties have closed escrow since New Year’s Day 2009. Three that are in escrow were listed in 2009 and BELIEVE it or NOT, one property in Tarzana (that’s the West Valley, and this particular house is located south of Ventura Boulevard) comes up as listed and sold in 2009…whether or not it’s a “glitch” in the system is yet to be determined. The thing is that with statistics you always have to take them with a grain of salt because there are several factors that come into play that can muck up the entire formula, first and foremost, human error. Theses statistics that I share with you are gathered from the Multiple Listing System and calculated by me, so we must leave room for error, but I do feel they help give a sense of where we are at two weeks into the new year. The market is breathing. People are investing in real estate in Los Angeles. And now, for the nitty-gritty details, like (uh-oh I promised not to abuse that word!), what is the price differential between original list price and sales price and days on market for properties that are selling in today’s real estate market?
-Of the 45 properties in the million dollar plus range that have sold thus far, 41 were listed in 2008, 1 in 2009 (see aforementioned property), and 3 were roll-overs from 2007.
Okay – this might be “cheating” but here is the way the MLS calculates the data:
Market Analysis Report
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ah-ha! I already see an error, the $11,500 – a glitch, a lease price being submitted for a “sales price” therefore throwing off ALL of the stats – unless I go in an manually recalculate them for you – i’m nice, but not that NICE, and I am getting tired.
Okay – look at the “average SP/Average LP” it’s 90% – that means that the properties that have sold in 2009 so far are only off their list prices by 10% and that is including the “glitch.”
The bottom line is that although there are some that would like to turn real estate into a science, it’s really not…the principles of supply and demand will always dictate and when a property is priced right for the market at the time it should sell in a reasonable amount of time for a reasonable price. That is not to say that there are not exceptions to this statement, especially given the number of listings in areas like the San Fernando Valley that are short-sales or foreclosed and not selling, even at $550,000 and under, but that is likely because demand for such properties is even less than demand for properties $1,000,000 above in other areas of Los Angeles. Sometimes it is difficult to ascertain, but it goes back to those who have the buying power, especially in this economy. Those who can readily obtain a loan or have the funds available to finance a purchase are likely not going to be looking for primary residences in the market where distressed properties are so abundant. But, these distressed properties do present good opportunities for first-time buyers and investors as an opporutnity to get into these properties are such prices may not last forever. And again, these statements are just an opinion, none of this is meant to be indulged in as fact, but I think with proper research you can grasp the nature of what is happening in Los Angeles real estate and realize that it’s not that much different then it has always been – but the inventory has changed and demand has been quelled by wide-spread economic panic, but it does still exist. There are deals to be had and still a market for sellers with good equity to stand to profit in these times.
Now that your head is spinning, TAKE THAT and have a little patience! And call me when you are ready to buy or sell!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Take_That
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFhkhRZhDas
Or, if you’re a G & R fan…voila!
